Technical Analysis (2010-07-30)
| EUR/USD | |||
| Previous Day Range | High: 1.3107 | Low: 1.2978 | Close: 1.3071 |
| Technical Chart | Resistance R-2: 1.3181 R-1: 1.3126 |
Support S-1: 1.2997 S-2: 1.2923 |
Forecast High:1.3126 Low: 1.2997 |
| EUR/USD's rally resumes today and edges higher to 1.3071 so far. We'd continue to look for reversal signal as EUR/USD approaches cluster level of 1.3105/3123 (38.2% retracement of 1.5143 to 1.1875 at 1.3123, 161.8% projection of 1.1875 to 1.2466 from 1.2149 at 1.3105). On the downside, break of 1.2731 will indicate that EUR/USD has topped out and target 1.2149/2466 support zone first. |
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| USD/JPY | |||
| Previous Day Range | High: 87.51 | Low: 86.56 | Close: 86.91 |
| Technical Chart | Resistance R-2: 87.94 R-1: 87.43 |
Support S-1: 86.48 S-2: 86.04 |
Forecast High: 87.43 Low : 86.48 |
| With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line again, intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral. Break of 88.11 minor support will suggests that recovery from 86.56 has finished at 88.11 and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 86.56 low. Break will confirm that whole decline from 94.97 has resumed and should target 84.81 key support level next. On the upside, in case of another rise, we'd continue to expect upside to be limited well below 89.14 resistance and bring fall resumption. |
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| GBP/USD | |||
| Previous Day Range | High: 1.5662 | Low: 1.5580 | Close: 1.5603 |
| Technical Chart | Resistance R-2: 1.5697 R-1: 1.5650 |
Support S-1: 1.5568 S-2: 1.5533 |
Forecast High:1.5650 Low :1.5568 |
| As noted before, even though upside momentum is GBP/USD is diminishing mildly, intraday bias remains on the upside with 1.5533 minor support intact. Current rise from 1.4230 is still expected to towards 61.8% retracement of 1.7043 to 1.4230 at 1.5968 next. On the downside, below 1.5533 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained by 1.5123 support and bring another rise. |
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| USD/CHF | |||
| Previous Day Range | High: 1.0581 | Low: 1.0375 | Close: 1.0412 |
| Technical Chart | Resistance R-2: 1.0662 R-1: 1.0537 |
Support S-1: 1.0331 S-2: 1.0250 |
Forecast High:1.0537Low :1.0331 |
| USD/CHF's sharp fall today and break of 1.0481 minor support indicates that consolidations from 1.0399 is likely finished at 1.0639 already. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside. Further break of 1.0394 low will confirm that whole fall from 1.1729 has resumed and should target outer trend line support (0.9634, 0.9916, now at 1.0020). On the upside, note that even in case of another recovery, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.0674 resistance holds and we'd expect another fall. |
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| AUD/USD | |||
| Previous Day Range | High: 0.9043 | Low: 0.8906 | Close: 0.9000 |
| Technical Chart | Resistance R-2: 0.9120 R-1: 0.9060 |
Support S-1: 0.8923 S-2: 0.8846 |
Forecast High:0.9060 Low :0.8846 |
| Australian Dollar: The Aussie dollar staged a remarkable recovery over the last 24 hours rallying from a post inflation report low of 0.8906 to trade at a high of 0.9043 overnight. After entering early London trade around 0.8965, Greenback selling provided the stimulus for the move as investors pushed EUR/USD higher following an upbeat consumer sentiment survey out of Europe. This morning sees the AUD/USD open at 0.9000 whilst with AUD/NZD demand also emerging following yesterdays RBNZ interest rate announcement the cross rate is higher at 1.2430. - We expect a range today in the AUD/USD rate of 0.8950 to 0.9050 •AUD: Jun Private Sector Credit •NZD: Jun Building Permits •USD: Q2 GDP, Q2 PCE, Jul Chicago PMI & Jul Uni of Michigan Consumer Sentiment •GBP: Jul GfK Consumer Confidence •EUR: Jun Unemployment & Jul CPI Estimate •JPY: Jun CPI, Jun Industrial Production & Jun Employment Report |
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| USD/CAD | |||
| Previous Day Range | High: 1.0392 | Low: 1.0300 | Close: 1.0361 |
| Technical Chart | Resistance R-2: 1.0443 R-1: 1.0402 |
Support S-1: 1.0310 S-2: 1.0259 |
Forecast High:1.0402 Low :1.0310 |
| US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar: The Canadian Dollar has strengthened to 1.0300 for the fourth time this week without breaking through to 1.0250. The 100 day moving average on the technicals is currently sitting at 1.0301 and providing solid support for the USD. If the USD/CAD can close today below 1.03 Traders are expecting the pairing to fall to 1.0150. - We expect a trading range of 1.0300 and 1.0380. •AUD: Private Sector Credit. •CAD: Raw Materials. •EUR: Euro-Zone Business Climate, German Unemployment Rate. •GBP: Mortgage Apprivals. •JPY: National Consumer Price Index, Jobless Rate. •NZD: Building Permits. •USD: Initial Jobless Claims. |
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