Technical Analysis (2013-05-21)
| EUR/USD | |||
| Previous Day Range | High: 1.2901 | Low: 1.2816 | Close: 1.2886 |
| Technical Chart | Resistance R-2:1.2953 R-1:1.2919 |
Support S-1:1.2835 S-2:1.2783 |
Forecast High:1.2919 Low:1.2835 |
| No change in EUR/USD's outlook. With 1.2929 minor resistance intact, deeper decline is still expected in EUR/USD for 1.2746 low first. Break will resume whole decline from 1.3710 support. Also, this will complete a head and should top pattern (ls: 1.3171; h: 1.3710; rs: 1.3242) and should at least bring decline to 100% projection of 1.3710 to 1.2746 from 1.3242 at 1.2278 and below. On the upside, above 1.2929 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery first. | |||
| USD/JPY | |||
| Previous Day Range | High: 103.12 | Low: 102.03 | Close: 102.26 |
| Technical Chart | Resistance R-2:103.55 R-1:102.91 |
Support S-1:101.82 S-2:101.38 |
Forecast High:102.91 Low:101.82 |
| With 101.82 minor support intact, further rise is still expected in USD/JPY and current rally is targeting 61.8% projection of 77.13 to 96.70 from 92.56 at 104.65 next. On the downside, though, below 101.82 will indicate short term topping and bring deeper pull back, possibly back towards 99.94 resistance turned support. But downside should be contained there to bring rally resumption. | |||
| GBP/USD | |||
| Previous Day Range | High: 1.5281 | Low: 1.5167 | Close: 1.5259 |
| Technical Chart | Resistance R-2:1.5350 R-1:1.5304 |
Support S-1:1.5190 S-2:1.5122 |
Forecast High:1.5304 Low:1.5190 |
| No change in GBP/USD's outlook. With 1.5322 minor resistance intact, deeper decline is still expected. As noted before, corrective rebound from 1.4830 has completed at 1.5606 after hitting 50% retracement of 1.6380 to 1.4830 at 1.5605. Current fall from 1.5606 is expected to extend to retest 1.4830 low next. In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161 and could have completed as a triangle pattern at 1.6380. Focus is on 1.4229 support and sustained break there should bring long term down trend resumption for a new low below 1.3503. However, strong rebound from or above 1.4229 will indicate that the whole pattern from 1.3503 is still in progress |
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| USD/CHF | |||
| Previous Day Range | High: 0.9735 | Low: 0.9649 | Close: 0.9663 |
| Technical Chart | Resistance R-2:0.9769 R-1:0.9716 |
Support S-1:0.9629 S-2:0.9596 |
Forecast High:0.9716 Low:0.9629 |
| As long as 0.9578 support holds, further rally is still expected. Sustained trading above 100% projection of 0.9021 to 0.9566 from 0.9206 at 0.9751 will pave the way to retest 0.9971 resistance next. On the downside, though, below 0.9578 will indicate short term topping and bring deeper pull back in stead. | |||
| AUD/USD | |||
| Previous Day Range | High: 0.9827 | Low: 0.9730 | Close: 0.9807 |
| Technical Chart | Resistance R-2:0.9885 R-1:0.9846 |
Support S-1:0.9749 S-2:0.9691 |
Forecast High:0.9846 Low:0.9749 |
| During Asian trade yesterday the Aussie managed to stabilise off recent lows and move back up towards 0.98 against its US counterpart. After solid gains seen in the back end of last week the Greenback lost ground overnight, in part due to consolidative moves and also due to more comments from members of the Fed; this time indicating current bond buying won’t be wound back earlier than initially forecast. This morning we managed to recapture 0.98, and now sit just above it, as investors wait for the RBA minutes due out later this morning. Given many economists were surprised by the drop in interest rates earlier this month, the minutes will be scrutinised for any signs on whether they will follow up with another cut next month. We expect a range today of 0.9755 – 0.9845 |
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| USD/CAD | |||
| Previous Day Range | High: 1.0296 | Low: 1.0217 | Close: 1.0236 |
| Technical Chart | Resistance R-2:1.0329 R-1:1.0282 |
Support S-1:1.0203 S-2:1.0171 |
Forecast High:1.0282 Low:1.0203 |
| The USD/CAD pair had a strong showing this week after printing a hammer the previous week. We now have established a range between parity and 1.03, and as a result we now have some way to measure the market. Above the 1.0350 level, we feel that this market continues much higher. Quite frankly, with the way the US dollar has been acting this is exactly what we expect to happen. However, buying directly into resistance is not the way to do it. We will buy pullbacks to show the slightest chance of support, and a break above the 1.0350 level |
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