Technical Analysis (2010-03-11)
| EUR/USD | |||
| Previous Day Range | High: 1.3680 | Low: 1.3545 | Close: 1.3655 |
| Technical Chart | Resistance R-2: 1.3762 R-1: 1.3708 |
Support S-1: 1.3573 S-2: 1.3492 |
Forecast High:1.3708 Low: 1.3573 |
| No change in EUR/USD's outlook. With 1.3530 minor support intact, EUR/USD's consolidation from 1.3443 is possibly still in progress. Nevertheless, even in case of another rise, upside is still expected to be limited by 1.3852 resistance to conclude the consolidation and bring fall resumption. Below 1.3530 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside first. Further break of of 1.3435 support will confirm fall resumption and should target 161.8% projection of 1.5143 to 1.4217 from 1.4578 at 1.3076 next. |
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| USD/JPY | |||
| Previous Day Range | High: 90.82 | Low: 89.63 | Close: 90.52 |
| Technical Chart | Resistance R-2: 91.38 R-1: 90.95 |
Support S-1: 89.96 S-2: 89.40 |
Forecast High: 90.95 Low : 89.96 |
| USD/JPY rebounded strongly after drawing support from 4 hours 55 EMA but it's still limited below 90.68 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations could still be seen. However, another rise would be mildly in favor as long as 89.19 minor support holds. Above 90.68 will bring rise resumption towards near term falling trend line (now at 91.48). On the downside, note that further break of 89.19 will argue that rebound from 88.13 is over and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting this support instead. |
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| GBP/USD | |||
| Previous Day Range | High: 1.5016 | Low: 1.4873 | Close: 1.4977 |
| Technical Chart | Resistance R-2: 1.5098 R-1: 1.5038 |
Support S-1: 1.4895 S-2: 1.4812 |
Forecast High:1.5038 Low :1.4895 |
| Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Recovery from 1.4783 might have completed at 1.5194 already after hitting 4 hours 55 EMA. Further fall should be seen to retest 1.4783 low first. Break there will confirm fall resumption and should target 200% projection of 1.6875 to 1.5829 from 1.6456 at 1.4364 next. On the upside, above 1.5026 will delay the bearish case and bring more consolidations. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6456 to 1.4783 at 1.5422 and bring fall resumption. |
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| USD/CHF | |||
| Previous Day Range | High: 1.0794 | Low: 1.0686 | Close: 1.0700 |
| Technical Chart | Resistance R-2: 1.0835 R-1: 1.0767 |
Support S-1: 1.0659 S-2: 1.0619 |
Forecast High:1.0767 Low :1.0659 |
| With 1.0809 minor resistance intact, consolidations from 1.0897 is still in progress and another fall might be seen. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 1.0608 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0131 to 1.0897 at 1.0604) and bring rally resumption. On the upside, above 1.0809 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside. Decisive break of 1.0897 will confirm that whole rally from 0.9916 has resumed. Also, sustained trading above medium term trend line resistance (now at 1.0803) will pave the way to 161.8% projection of 0.9916 to 1.0506 from 1.0131 at 1.1086 next. |
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| AUD/USD | |||
| Previous Day Range | High: 0.9193 | Low: 0.9127 | Close: 0.9140 |
| Technical Chart | Resistance R-2: 0.9219 R-1: 0.9180 |
Support S-1: 0.9114 S-2: 0.9087 |
Forecast High:0.9180 Low :0.9114 |
| Yesterday’s announcement of a steep decline in housing finance caught the market by surprise somewhat triggering a drop in the Aussie dollar to an intraday low of 0.9130. Any positive effect from the increase in consumer confidence as measured by a monthly Westpac survey was offset by the news that lending in the Australian property sector fell by 7.9% in January, the largest monthly fall in a decade and the second successive drop with December having also dropped by 5.1%. The Aussie dollar held however and found support during offshore exchange following higher than forecast German inflation data and optimism heading into today’s Australian employment report with general market consensus pointing to the unemployment rate remaining at 5.3% and around 15k jobs to be added for the month of February. With a positive number expected the Aussie dollar is at risk of pulling back from this morning’s open around 0.9150 and should the numbers disappoint initial support around 0.9130 is likely to be tested. - We expect a range today in the AUD/USD rate of 0.9080 to 0.9180. |
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| USD/CAD | |||
| Previous Day Range | High: 1.0292 | Low: 1.0217 | Close: 1.0255 |
| Technical Chart | Resistance R-2: 1.0330 R-1: 1.0292 |
Support S-1: 1.0217 S-2: 1.0180 |
Forecast High:1.0292 Low :1.0217 |
| The Canadian Dollar had a very uneventful overnight session remaining range bound between 1.0250 and 1.0290. Traders are looking for the USD/CAD to close below 1.0200 before further Loonie appreciation can be anticipated. Tomorrow Trade Balance figures will be released in the US and Canada which may provide the spark to push the pairing out of its current range bound play. - We expect a trading range of 1.0235 and 1.0325. |
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